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Back in 2018, it took just eight words to electrify a Labour conference and to show the party was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the words were greeted with rapturous applause as most of the hall stood for an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.

During that darkly divisive time of 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who would stand up for the party's base against the leadership he would later replace.

The Evolution in Position & Settled Issues

Since then, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that forbade rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, his strategy has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if survey data suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on Europe

However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a party leader. And, if Europe may not be the central crisis in UK politics, the cap that has been kept tightly sealed since Brexit is starting to loosen again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up the rhetoric regarding the damage that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the minor adjustments so far offered by the government. The PM's much-touted re-set deal negotiated with the EU last summer provides gains quantified in fractions of a percent.

Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme allowing young people can move between Britain and Europe to study or work.

The deputy prime minister muses openly about the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, last week voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of EU policy, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal involves announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, to be enacted only after Labour won a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Scepticism

Yet, Starmer has lately been damping it all down on the idea cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the commercial agreements with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his premiership.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he believes a customs pact is now much harder as ministers are actively diverging from European rules in numerous policy areas, including the environment.
2. Second, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has led British officials that European nations have little interest in offering favorable terms with Britain than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by Moscow, is viewed by key advisors in Downing Street as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.

A Bizarre Document and Geopolitical Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper claims Europe faces “civilizational erasure” due to immigration. It contains a single mention of the UK, placed beside a proposal that the US government may interfere in British politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.

However, instead of concluding that this renders the US an unreliable partner, the government reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter & The Ghost from the Past

All of which brings us back to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not a pitch for the leadership but merely an attempt to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU in a future vote. Indeed, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.

Observers within Downing Street note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a group of cabinet ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her position regarding a customs pact because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Clear Risk & A Prudent Reminder

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be wise of him to recall the impact just a few words had for him in 2018. There are options for a major proposal on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should explore them personally, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.