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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."