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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.